Investment banking behemoth Goldman Sachs has been one of gold’s most enthusiastic cheerleaders since the metal’s current bull run gained critical mass lo these many years ago.

And as it happens, that enthusiasm remains undiminished despite the yellow metal’s stunning 100% rise since the outset of 2024.

In an interview with Bloomberg TV a couple of weeks ago, Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman, appeared as euphoric as ever about gold’s prospects through at least the end of next year, saying that emerging market central bank purchases and a return to accommodative monetary policy will continue to push gold even further into uncharted territory from here.

Strategist Sees Gold 20% Higher by EOY 2026

“We look for nearly 20% of additional price upside by the end of 2026, with our forecast at $4,900 per troy ounce by the end of ’26,” Struyven said. “Not as fast as this year – we were up almost 60% year-to-date – but the two drivers of the ‘25 rally, we think, will be repeated in ‘26.”

Then this week, Goldman analysts effectively doubled down on their longstanding metals optimism, specifically citing the continued low ownership levels among U.S. investors as a reason to stay excited about gold’s fortunes now that the country appears to be heading back into a cycle of declining interest rates.

According to their data, gold ETFs – incredibly, in my opinion – represented just 0.17% of private U.S. portfolios through the second quarter; this despite gold rising at roughly twice the pace of the S&P 500 over the last two years.

Goldman noted, as well, in this week’s update that less than half of U.S. institutions with at least $100 million under management have any allocation to gold whatsoever…and those that do hold the metal rarely have allocations above the 0.1% to 0.5% range.

Historically Stock-Centric U.S. Investors Could Be Key to Gold’s Next Leg Higher

The persistently low gold allocations among U.S. investors is, in one sense, not difficult to understand, given that ours is an investment culture which has long-prized equities over real assets.

“Portfolio growth has outpaced gains in gold prices and volumes over the past decade,” Goldman’s analysts wrote, implying that may have blinded stock-centric investors to gold’s more recent outperformance.

And this perceived, substantial under-allocation is a key reason why Goldman remains so positive about the outlook for gold even with all of the tremendous upward strides it’s taken over the past several years. Should markets actually stumble in some material way, the historically risk-off asset which has managed to thrive alongside surging equities would be poised to benefit further from an investor-driven – rather than a central-bank-driven – flight to safety.

As Daan Struyven suggested to Bloomberg TV:

“You have significant upside in a base case, and in scenarios where markets may perform less well – perhaps concerns about the fiscal trajectory or concerns about questions about Fed independence – I think gold would be even better than in the already attractive base case.”

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