Hello, my friends!

This week’s economic data releases were dominated by fresh numbers on the health of the labor market, including those cultivated by the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey…known more commonly as the JOLTS report…as well as by the widely followed Challenger Job Cuts report published by outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Conspicuously absent from this week’s employment updates was the government’s headline nonfarm payrolls report, which fell victim to the partial shutdown and now is scheduled for release next Wednesday.

As for the jobs updates we did get, the aforementioned JOLTS report for December was among the biggest. On Tuesday, the Labor Department announced job openings fell that month to their lowest level in five years, tumbling to 6.54 million from a downwardly revised 6.93 million in November. The number was well below the projections of economists, who expected to see 7.25 million openings in December.

As of this latest report, job openings in the U.S. now are down a whopping 45% from the peak of nearly 12 million reached in March 2022.

Also sinking like a stone over the last four years is the number of vacancies per unemployed worker. In 2022, the ratio stood at 2 to 1. As of this latest JOLTS report, there was less than one vacancy…0.9, to be exact…for every out-of-work American.

ADP Says Private Sector Payrolls Increased by Just 22,000 Last Month

On Wednesday, payroll processor ADP offered up additional concerning news about the strength of the labor market with the release of its National Employment Report for January, which revealed the private sector added just 22,000 jobs in the first month of 2026. That total is considerably less than the 37,000 jobs picked up in December and well below the consensus estimate of 45,000 jobs.

In fact, the January ADP report would have reflected a net loss of jobs if not for the outsized contribution of the education and health services sector, which alone contributed 74,000 jobs to the cause. The professional and business services sector saw the biggest drop, losing 57,000 jobs last month. Also heading in the wrong direction was manufacturing, which gave up 8,000 jobs. According to ADP data, the manufacturing sector has shed jobs every month since March 2024.

Referencing the ongoing softness in the jobs market, ADP chief economist Nela Richardson told CNBC:

“Hiring is softening. It continues a pattern that we’ve noticed for the past three years. Employers are very reticent to hire in the current economy.”

Outplacement Firm Challenger Says Job Cuts Last Month Were the Highest of Any January in Last 17 Years

Still more worrisome data about the health of the job market emerged this week when outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported on Thursday that U.S. employers announced a total of 108,345 layoffs in January. That’s a 205% increase from December 2025, a 118% year-over-year increase, and the highest total for any January going back to 2009, when the impacts of the global financial crisis were continuing to sweep across the economic landscape.

Also, companies announced just 5,306 new hires last month…which is the lowest for any January since 2009. Beyond its statistical significance, that data is notable because it raises the possibility that the stasis which has characterized the so-called “no hire/no fire” labor market may be headed for an unpleasant end.     

“Generally, we see a high number of job cuts in the first quarter, but this is a high total for January,” said Andy Challenger, chief revenue officer at his namesake firm. “It means most of these plans were set at the end of 2025, signaling employers are less-than-optimistic about the outlook for 2026.”

Factory Activity Saw Big Improvement in January    

Last but certainly not least this week, the Institute for Supply Management announced Monday that its January Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index reentered expansion territory for the first time in a year, climbing to 52.6 from 47.9 in December. Measures above the neutral level of 50 imply growth of the economy while those below 50 suggest economic contraction.

The January index number was well above the 48.5 projected by economists, as well as the highest reading in nearly 3½ years.

Notably, the New Orders Index – a key component measure of the overall index – played a large part in the broader metric’s improvement, surging last month to 57.1 from 47.4 in December.

Still, it remains unclear where the index goes from here. Referring to survey feedback from business owners, Susan Spence, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, suggested January’s upbeat numbers “are tempered by commentary citing that January is a reorder month after the holidays, and some buying appears to be to get ahead of expected price increases due to ongoing tariff issues.”

That’s it for now; have a fantastic weekend!

This post is created and published for general information purposes only. The Gold Strategist blog disclaims responsibility for any liability or loss incurred as a consequence of the use or application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein. Nothing contained in this post – or any other post featured at this blog – should be construed as a solicitation or recommendation to engage in any financial transaction. You should seek the advice of a qualified professional before making any changes to your personal financial profile.

Strategists at CIBC (Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce) now say there’s really no reason to question gold’s continued viability as long as dollar weakness remains in the cards.

In fact, say the analysts, the impact of that predicted, ongoing weakness is likely to be so profound that they see the price of gold continuing to venture much further into record territory over the next two years, at least.

In a recently published update to earlier price forecasts, the commodities team at CIBC said they now see the price of gold averaging $6,000 per ounce in 2026, a marked increase from their projection of $4,500 per ounce made in October.

CIBC Strategists: Relentless Pressure on the Dollar Should Usher in $6,500 Gold Next Year

What’s more, they believe the price of gold will keep rising into 2027, rising to $6,500 per ounce that year. That would be a 30% increase from present levels.

Explaining why they believe that dollar distress will play such a prominent role in supporting gold prices through the foreseeable future, the analysts said:

“Dollar debasement is likely to persist as the central banks and investors react to heightened uncertainty by quietly allocating away from U.S. Treasuries. We believe further pressure on the dollar will come from rate cuts and continued tension between the Fed and the White House, and we believe Kevin Warsh will look to tighten the Fed balance sheet in order to lower interest rates for Main Street.”

Indeed, while Fed chair nominee Warsh historically has been a fan of tighter monetary policy and a critic of quantitative easing, he has, more recently, seemed to take a decidedly dovish tilt, as the strategists at CIBC noted.

“He has argued for tighter Fed balance sheets, which he asserts would tamp inflation and allow for lower rates for Main Street,” they said. “More recently, he has indicated support for Trump’s government efficiency drive, noting it could temper inflation and allow for lowering of rates.”

That said, CIBC analysts ultimately believe that the matter of gold-favorable currency debasement has become a structural feature of the global economy and something that transcends monetary policy in the U.S.

“With the decades-long de facto safe-haven asset, U.S. Treasuries, no longer considered ‘risk-free,’ investors and central banks are looking for alternatives,” the analysts noted. “The pickings are slim. Most Western economies are facing near-record debt-to-GDP ratios, and most are looking to inflate rather than constrain their way out of the dilemma. Investor confidence in fiat currencies has eroded, and gold has seen much of this flight to safety.”

This post is created and published for general information purposes only. The Gold Strategist blog disclaims responsibility for any liability or loss incurred as a consequence of the use or application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein. Nothing contained in this post – or any other post featured at this blog – should be construed as a solicitation or recommendation to engage in any financial transaction. You should seek the advice of a qualified professional before making any changes to your personal financial profile.