Ed Yardeni, the man in charge at esteemed global investment strategy firm Yardeni Research, isn’t surprised to see that gold topped $4,000 by the end of 2025. Indeed, he expected to see it happen, noting early last year that the many drivers of gold’s ongoing surge, to include “inflation, political uncertainty and global chaos,” remain as dynamic as ever.
At the time, Yardeni said that beyond his expectation of $4,000 gold in 2025, he also projected the yellow metal would reach $5,000 by the end of 2026.
Now, however, the Yale-educated PhD economist is changing his tune. Not because he thinks gold is running out of gas and poised to change direction; rather, because even for as far and as fast as it’s risen so far, he thinks gold will finish much higher than $5,000 by next December.
“When the price of an ounce of gold rose above $3,000 at the start of this year, we projected it would reach $4,000 by the end of this year and $5,000 by the end of next year,” Yardeni recently told clients in a note.
“This evening, the price rose above $4,500. We are raising our year-end 2026 target to $6,000,” Yardeni added.
Yardeni’s Gold Projection Sits Head and Shoulders Above the Others
$6,000 in the next 12 months may seem excessively optimistic, particularly in the context of other projections made by credible observers. For example, Goldman Sachs said it’s now expecting to see gold finish 2026 at $4,900, while J.P. Morgan projects gold to rise to slightly above $5,000 over the same period. Other high-profile institutions such as UBS are also looking for gold to close out 2026 at around $5,000.
But if there was ever a time to be “excessively optimistic” about gold’s prospects, this seems to be it. Longstanding drivers of this extended rally such as central bank demand, heightened geopolitical risk and persistently higher inflation remain very much intact. Moreover, evidence suggests that gold remains significantly underinvested among retail investors, raising the possibility – even the expectation – that a significant rotation into the metal by the broader investment community is looming.
“Excessively Stimulative Monetary and Fiscal Policies” Helping to Sustain Gold’s Seemingly Neverending Surge
Additionally, says Yardeni, these and other gold-favorable factors persist against the backdrop of what may be among the metal’s most potent overall energy sources: the federal government’s seemingly single-minded drive toward outright fiscal unsustainability, now helped along by the central bank’s revitalized accommodative monetary policy posture.
“We suspect that the precious metals prices might be signaling recent concerns about an excessively stimulative combination of monetary and fiscal policies in the U.S. next year,” Yardeni said.
“Even if the Fed stops cutting the federal-funds rate during the first four months of 2026, the Fed is committed to buying about $40 billion per month in Treasury bills through April,” the economist added, referring to a recent operating policy statement issued by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Could gold prices really be headed for $6,000 over the next 12 months? We certainly can’t know for sure right now. But given that each of the drivers that has pushed gold nearly 150% higher over the last three years remains in optimal condition and a potential new driver – broad-based investor demand – looms particularly large right now, the idea that gold could climb another 30% from present levels by next December doesn’t seem at all far-fetched.
This post is created and published for general information purposes only. The Gold Strategist blog disclaims responsibility for any liability or loss incurred as a consequence of the use or application, either directly or indirectly, of any information presented herein. Nothing contained in this post – or any other post featured at this blog – should be construed as a solicitation or recommendation to engage in any financial transaction. You should seek the advice of a qualified professional before making any changes to your personal financial profile.
The Gold Strategist 